The Role Of Risk Management In Producing An Effective Method Of Handling Risks

Risk is a part of every day life, it is at the heart of free market societies, since it creates a

chance for profits to be made. As such it can be defined as the combination of an event

and it's consequences. Inverse to this is that risks can also have a down side to them,

and may destroy the very enterprises that they help create.

It is for this pivotal reason that it is necessary for firms to seriously have procedures

to adequately respond to the risks that they face. The two major categories of risks

poised to an organization are;

Speculative risks- Where a specific value of capital is knowingly put at risk in the hope

 that a profit may be derived from it. E.g. pricing decisions or marketing strategies.

Operational risks- where something unforeseen and unpleasant happens to the organization

 or it's responsibility. E.g. loss of client information after a computer hitch.

The structured process of responding to risk is known as risk management, and is implementable to all types of firms, from service providers such as HMOs' to industrial equipment production firms.

The risk management process

The process follows a rather similar approach, where we begin first identifying risks

that affects the earning capacity of the firm. E.g. is there a risk that contracted health providers will fail to maintain desired level of service? Can the regulators fail to renew our operational licenses? Can client information leak out of the organisation to unauthorized third parties?

This process of risk identification can be done in various ways using various tools available

to the risk manager.

The identified risks will then need to be assesed and analysed, using methodologies such as; dependency models, and hazard indices.

Such analysis can either be qualitative or quantitative in nature. Depending on what kind of risks we are measuring and the background knowledge of the user of this information. Qualitative analysis is generally subjective in nature and is used by business managers without statistical background, whereas quantitative analysis is statistical in nature and used by the actuaries and the likes.

Having analyzed the risks affecting our organisation it is necessary for the risk manager to prioritise this in relation to the risk appetite of the organisation; that is at what point is the risk a problem to the organization, this is based on the corporate philosophy and the type of risk.

Prioritization of risk is also dependant on statutory and management requirements.

Once this task has been accomplished risk control plans must be put in place to bring either eliminate this risks completely or to bring them down to acceptable levels. Such plans must essentially include business continuity plans which will enable an organization manage through an exposure once it has occurred.

Various types of exposures will require various types of controls. Taking the example of a health insurance provider, the various risks that it can be exposed to will include;

Risks within the service chain, and the chances of that chain being broken, leading to non delivery of service.

Technological and e-commerce risks which has been brought about by the use of the internet to sell products across borders.

Damage risks to its physical assets and its people.

Intellectual asset exposures including the leakage of organizations’ information to third parties, reputation and brand risks.

Liability risks such as those associated with the public, its products, employees, workplace legislation and even professional indemnity.

Product risks is worthy of mention on it’s own and the risks under this exposure include, quality control, brand risks, research and development exposures and product recall.

Other exposures will include, political risks, external environment risks, contractual risks and counter party risks.

Various options exist to control exposures; they can be classified into;

Retained risks- those risks which after analysis were seen to be better of managed within the organization. Methods include;

Self insurance or funding where the organization say sets up a fund from which dental and optical claims can be financed.

Captive insurance company; where a completely autonomous organization or subsidiary is set up to manage its exposures. This has tax incentives for large multinationals that can use the strengths of their balance sheet to manage their risks.

Absorbing the exposure as a risk to the organization, this is best seen in the retail supermarket where shoplifting, or stock shrinkage is a simply factored in as a loss to the organization.

Any financing method must be thoroughly analysed including a cost benefit analysis. And a written plan must be prepared and implemented to ensure that no potentially destructive risk is left unmanaged.

It is important to note that some of the killer risks to an organization are often without any form of insurance to protect them. Hence innovative ways must be thought out by the risk manager of how to best handle these exposures.

Transferring risks-this is transferring the consequences of any exposure to a third party to whom the organization bears no responsibility. Can be done through;

 Use of contract wordings, thereby ensuring that risks are not brought into the organization or those risks are transferred out of the organization. It is important to however note that in the event that the counterparty fails to meet its obligation, the risk will inevitably fall back on the risk manager’s organization, which may inevitably be less prepared to handle it.

Risks can also be transferred through the insurance industry, which is best for low frequency, high severity risk since it brings down the cost of protection by effecting the benefits of the law of large numbers.

However as stated earlier conventional insurance is not available for some types of risks, especially those catastrophic in nature. This has led to the creation of what is known as the alternative risk transfer mechanisms (ART) such instruments transfer risks into the capital markets of the world therefore ensuring a wider capital base against exposures.

Such control plans should be frequently reviewed and monitored to ensure they remain up to date and relevant.

Summary

The brief over view shows that every organization should with the help of a professional risk consultant, seriously conduct an in depth look at the exposures that they carry to ensure that these don’t hinder them from attainment of their objectives, and also to ensure that the risk are managed in the most cost effective manner to ensure maximum value to an organization and it’s stakeholders.

Why you’re struggling to make ends meet - a case study on Kenya

The end year public opinion polls are in. The prognosis is not good.

More than half the people think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The foremost concerns that Kenyans have are ugali and mboga issues. Cost of living tops the concerns followed by employment. The economy trumps all other concerns by a wide margin.

Why, after a decade of economic resurgence, are these basic issues still the biggest worries for Kenyans? 

The mandarins tell us that it is because the economy is not growing fast enough. We need to grow by at least 7 percent, but preferably 10 percent per year to reduce unemployment and poverty. 

But why is it not growing at 7 percent, despite our sleek new roads? Will the new railway do the trick? 

And why is it that the ordinary Tanzanian is also struggling, despite more than a decade of 7 percent growth?

A decade ago, I was tasked to help the Narc government formulate the Economic Recovery Strategy (ERS). 

WEALTH CREATION

As you may recall, Narc, in its election manifesto, had promised to create 500,000 jobs every year. This, free education and zero corruption tolerance, were the pledges that momentarily made Kenyans the most optimistic people in the world. 
 

Upon election, Planning Minister Prof Anyang Nyong’o constituted a three-man task force to help the Government to formulate a strategy to implement its economic programme. 

The other two members of the taskforce were Harris Mule, one of Kenya’s most accomplished and globally respected technocrats and Caleb Opon, a brilliant young banker turned policy analyst.

The assignment was to be a bigger challenge, and melodramatic, than we could have imagined. I do not mean formulating the strategy. 

That was relatively straightforward as we had spent the preceding 10 years in opposition thinking about, debating, and writing on these issues.

We had a significant body of work, going back to the 1992 Post-Election Action Programme (PEAP) by the Institute of Economic Affairs which Prof Anyang’ Nyong’o, Mr Robert Shaw and myself, among others, had co-founded in 1993. 

I also had formidable brain trust of peers — Betty Maina, Sam Mwale, Wachira Maina, John Githongo, Gem Kodhek, John Kashangaki, Richard Ayah and Duncan Okello, to name a few — who had ideas galore on how to fix every aspect of the country’s governance and economy.

The Narc government had won election on a mandate to create jobs and we did not like this poverty business, so we decided to call the ERS a strategy for employment and wealth creation. 

The Kanu regime was addicted to aid. Aid was tied to adopting a donor template known as the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). 

We strongly advised Narc against going in for a big aid funded programme too early, as these had the habit of unraveling and destabilizing the budget and the economy. 

We argued that a “governance dividend” of reducing corruption, inefficiency and wastage would be sufficient to finance the recovery. 

The donors and the mandarins insisted that the economy could not recover without a massive infusion of aid.

We fought hard. In the end we got our way, or so we thought. The ERS was launched, and we returned to our private lives. 

BUREAUCRATIC SOLUTION

The bureaucrats were down but not out. Soon, the Narc government relented, and agreed to mobilise massive amounts of aid.

But there was a problem. The government did not have a PRSP. A bureaucratic solution was found. The PRSP was repackaged, put in a cover similar to the ERS, and renamed the Investment Programme for the ERS (IP-ERS). 

Its authors claimed that the ERS had “embraced the positions of the PRSP”, but went on to smugly assert that IP-ERS reflected “the serious thinking from Kenya Government experience over the years.”

In fact, no thinking was required to produce a PRSP—it was simply a standard structural adjustment programme with ring-fenced education and health budget. 

The ERS on the other hand was quite unequivocal that employment was the pivotal link between growth and poverty reduction. It was to take Washington another decade to catch up with that prognosis.

The government had a successful donor conference at which over $4 billion (Sh340 billion) was pledged. But the smugness was short lived. 

Shortly thereafter, Anglo Leasing blew up. For the eighth time, an ambitious reform programme predicated on aid unraveled. So much for serious thinking. 

In the aftermath of the constitution referendum, all the progressives were booted out of government and President Kibaki’s conservative wing of the coalition took charge. 

The result was complete triumph of capital fundamentalism, in the name of Vision 2030: growth above all else, fuelled by mega infrastructure projects.

DEATH OF PEOPLE-CENTRIC AGENDA

While many Kenyans appreciated the referendum fallout as the end of the Narc dream of inclusive politics, few realised that it was also the end of the promise of an inclusive, people-centered economic agenda.

By 2007, corporate profits were booming, the stock market went through the roof and property millionaires were popping up everywhere. The word on the cocktail circuit was that the economy had been finally divorced from politics.

But a few blocks down the road from the cocktail lounges, things were not as rosy.

While economic growth rate of Kibaki’s first term more than doubled to 5 percent from 2 percent in Moi’s last term, employment growth actually slowed down from 15 percent to 9 percent.

The poor did not share the growth, but they bore the brunt of inflation.

During Moi’s last term, inflation for the low income and middle income groups had increased more or less equally, by 24 percent and 28 percent respectively. 

During Kibaki’s first term, low income group cost of living rose 70 percent as compared to 40 percent for the higher ups. 

Farmers’ purchasing power as measured by the agricultural terms of trade (prices of inputs versus outputs) was eroded by 20 percent.

The gasoline was all over the floor. All it required was the spark that the 2007 election fiasco provided.

The only people who could not have smelled it were the pinstripe brigade whose heads were up there in the stratosphere with the NSE Index.

This is why we find ourselves where we are after a decade of growth, mesmerised by one mega infrastructure project after another, as the ordinary person wonders why the struggle to make ends meet gets more difficult by the day. 

It’s not for want of knowledge. In fact, we have fairly good idea as to where we should be investing to create jobs and reduce poverty. Let me illustrate. 

NO PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY

We spent Sh30 billion on the Thika highway, most of it borrowed, of course. 

The project was based on an expected economic rate of return of 30 percent, most of it from the benefits in saved commuting time and vehicle operating costs, and road maintenance costs. 

This then means that no new productive capacity was expected from the investment, rather its economic benefit was to boost the bottomlines of existing businesses.

We also invested a meagre Sh2 billion in the aquaculture (fish ponds). This, by the way, was by pure luck.

Had the need for an economic stimulus to mitigate the post election violence and global financial crisis not arisen, this project would still be languishing on the shelves of Fisheries Department where it had been gathering dust for years.

This initiative has catapulted our aquaculture fish production fivefold from 4,000 metric tons per year to 22,000 tons. 

Now even at a conservative value of Sh200 per kilo of fish, this translated to Sh4 billion production.

This alone would give an economic return of 80 percent, excluding the additional economic activity and jobs created in the entire value chain from breeding fingerlings to transport, distribution and processing — as well the indirect benefits especially nutrition, food supply, and agricultural productivity.

In effect, had we invested Sh30 billion in similar agricultural productivity projects, and there is no shortage of them, we would have expanded the economy by at least Sh60 billion a year, close to two percent of GDP, or more graphically, enough to finance a Thika highway every year—debt free.

This is not an isolated example—it validates countless research findings. 

One such is a recent study by Kenya Institute of Public Policy Research and Analysis (KIPPRA), a government think-tank, providing estimates of the job creating potential of different industries. 

It calculates — as shown in the graph on the facing page — that other than the hospitality sector, the highest job creation potential is in agriculture (the employment multiplier is the percentage increase in employment that would result from doubling the output of the industry).

Note also, that the highest job creating potential industries are also the sectors which have the highest incidence of poverty—beef and goats have the highest job creating potential, and pastoralists are also the poorest people in Kenya. 

And, of course, food is the biggest driver of cost of living, particularly for the poor. 

This tells us that a pro-poor agricultural investment will hit all our three birds with one stone—job creation, poverty and cost of living.

This is what the ERS was supposed to be about, a strategy “focused on job creation and expansion of economic opportunities for resource poor farmers, informal enterprise, and economically disadvantaged communities.”

Will the Jubilee Government turn the tide? As I am not a jubilant, I can be forgiven for not holding my breath. But I do have reasons.

First, with close to a year gone, it is hard to see policy substance beneath the digital hubris.

Jubilee has floundered even on its flagship digital pledge, the laptop project, as good a no-brainer as I have ever seen. Second, in terms of budget, Jubilee is already locked into Kibaki legacy projects for at least the next three years.

Third, its look East foreign policy can only pile up on the mega infrastructure projects, more so now that we have oil and other underground goodies to pay for them. 

Of note, the study cited above, says construction has the lowest employment multiplier of all the industries in the economy.

Fourth, Jubilee is itself a child of the same conservative economic interests as its predecessor.

Its DNA is Kanu. Last but not least, I see the same old “serious thinking” mandarins — with their faces to Washington and their backsides to wananchi—still firmly in the driver’s seat.

So, there you have it.

Dr Ndii is Managing Director of Africa Economics

http://mobile.nation.co.ke/blogs/Why-Kenyans-are-getting-poorer-despite-rapid-growth/-/1949942/2133782/-/format/xhtml/-/npnat7z/-/index.html

Thoughts with a Rastafari Brejrin from Kenya

KI. What about reparations for yourself?
GM. If black people received some form of reparations then I as an individual black person would also benefit.
KI. Do you feel your brethren no matter where they hail from (Europe, Africa, elsewhere) should repatriate to Africa?
GM. The Bible says that the earth is the Lords and the fullness thereof. Marcus Garvey said Africa for the Africans at home and abroad. Repatriation therefore is an individual thing.
KI. If you are repatriating, when and to where does the I expect to do so?
GM. I have done this already and Jah has brought I to Kenya for the present.
KI. Is the I actively working towards repatriating? Does the I send monies to others who are in Shashamane?
GM. From time to time I support a cause. Currently I am assisting 7 Kenyan youths to secure scholarships to go and study Theology in Ethiopia.
KI. Is the I a member of any organized Movement, which is working to further Rastafari or the Rastafari people, and would the I care to briefly explain the works?
GM. I am not currently a member of any particular Movement other than being a Rastafari. I work with individuals to realize their goals within Rastafari. IN the early days I along with some brethrens and sistrens established a Movement called Rastafarian Advancement Society in London England. The association worked in bringing the message of Rastafari to the masses and with the local authorities such as police, prison, hospitals and so one. We secured legal representation on be half of the Rastafari Community to the Lord Scarman enquiry into the UK riots, which started in Brixton. Whilst the Enquiry concluded that the Rastafari community was not responsible for ignigting the riots the movement was a new emerging religion in the 20th Century a statement InI did not agree with. I have worked with the Ethiopian World Federation in particular Ras Seymour Mclean and Lidj Mulugeta Aserrate in bringing to plight the issue of the Magdala Collection. I have also worked with Ambassador Wolde Selassie King of EWF Inc Shashamane in developing the concept of the model city for Shashamane. I continue to work with various groups so long as they are instrumental in bringing about a closer unity amongst InI
KI. What is the I current occupation?
GM. I am a director and shareholder of a Telecommunications company based in Kenya. I also act a consultant to business in the food and entertainment industry.
KI. What is the I Sabbath practice?
GM. According the Ethiopian Orthodox Church, Saturday as the Sabbath has not changed. Sunday is truly the day of the Resurrection and InI should rejoice in it being the day that the Lord made. The Sabbath in Orthodox tradition is a day of relaxation and preparation for celebrating the day of the Resurrection of our Lord the centre of which should be the partaking of the blessed sacrament of the Eucharist.
KI. What is the I view of the Sacrament, considered Hola to some houses ands mansions? Is it necessary to partake of the Sacrament?
GM. I understand this question to relate to the taking of herbs as a sacrament. Again each person is free to follow whatever discipline he desires but to say InI is united in the spiritual sense would mean InI see the sacrament is essential which it is not. Anything taking into the body such as smoke cannot be good for the body. I have personally seen my dear Bingi brothers pass away after both his lungs collapsed because of the continual smoking of the herbs as the Hola Sacrament. The Hola Sacrament that InI King partook of is the Sacrament of the Holy Eucharist which is onfiltered=of the seven Pillars of Mysteries of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church. The bible clearly states that if InI do not take this particular sacrament InI will have no life, as it is life i.e. the body and blood of Eyesus Kristos symbolized as bread and wine. His Imperial Majesty never failed to partake of this Sacrament so how can InI who follow him replace it for herbs?

KI. How does the I keep an Ital diet? Since there are some differing diets kept, what is your view of those who do not keep vegan?
GM. First the bible says that InI should not condemn InI brothers because of what he eats as it is not what goes into the body that defiles it but the words that come out of ones mouth. As a consequence the bible is also clear on what meats InI can eat. As a follower of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church one has an opportunity to fast for nearly half of the year. During this fasting period one eats nothing from the animal – the diet is completely vegan- all forms of animal products (meat, eggs, butter, milk, cheese etc.) are strictly prohibited. As the bible does not forbid one from eating meat and it also specifically request that InI should not do anything to cause thy brother to stumble, the periods of fasting gives the body time to cleans its self and it serves to weaken the force of the body so that the body may obey the soul which is of the Father.
KI. How does the I view Haile Selassie teachments, his major tenants from speeches you have read?
GM. Robert Nesta Marley (Berhane Selassie) sang, “Give us the teachings of His Majesty….” His Imperial Majesty is the central personality in Rastafari. The name Rastafari derives from his names Ras Teferi Makonen. In his various Utterances and Selected Speeches one can find the solution for InI development, the growth of the African Continent and the world at large in terms of collective security. His works in developing Ethiopia and his encouragement to Education is unsurpassing. His comments on his love of the Creator and Eyesus Kristos brings InI into some form of contradiction at least those who claim him to be God or the Son of God in the sense of the second person of the Holy Trinity. For this reason I follow Bob’s advice and not the tradition of men. I accept Him as he has told who and me who he is his lord and Savior is whom I also follow with all my heart and soul.
KI. How does the I see Reggae music (Roots) in the present time?
GM. Reggae music from its inception has always been the medium of the masses. An inspirational tool to uplift the people and it will always be that. It is for me the real classical music.
KI. Any feeling about Gospel Reggae or what they call Christian Reggae such as Judy Mowatt, Sis Carlene Davis, Papa San foe Isample?
GM. We all know that reggae music was seen as unsuitable for a Christian. It was shunned by the masses only InI relied on it for both spiritual and social inspiration. Now it is being used to promote mainstream Christianity. Jah is marvelous and he takes the foolish things of the world to confound the wise. Reggae music will permeate throughout the world and InI will use it as the medium to spread the true gospel of the Father Son and Holy Spirit. Let them spread to those who first denied it – in time InI will use it for the true works.


Adapted from http://www.alumbo.com/cgi-bin/article/14568

Insurance Cost of the WestGate incident; Kenya

An Extract from the Insurance Insider:

 The Lloyd's market is the insurer of the Nairobi Westgate shopping mall attacked by armed Somali militants on Saturday (21 September), but the total sum insured is a relatively modest $76mn, The Insurance Insider can reveal.

Emerging markets political violence specialist Chaucer heads the political violence placement that was taken out by the mall's owner, the Kenyan company Sony Holdings.

Chaucer is supported by a list of blue-chip Lloyd's markets including QBE, Liberty Syndicates, Hiscox, Novae and Canopius.

However, the total sum insured for property damage and business interruption, covered on a full-value basis, is understood to be some 6.7bn Kenyan shillings, or $76mn.

The political violence cover includes terrorism and carries a deductible of $50,000 for property damage and seven days for business interruption, with a 24-month indemnity period.

However, the property cover is believed to exclude contents. The business interruption cover will respond to loss of rent receivable from individual mall tenants, but will avoid tenants' loss of profits, which are either insured separately or uninsured.

Sources suggest it is too early to estimate the total claims burden, although initial evidence gives grounds for optimism that the mall is unlikely to be a total loss.

Lloyd's has a strong trading relationship with Kenya, and the market for political risk insurance has grown significantly in the East African nation since it suffered months of widespread political rioting following the disputed December 2007 presidential elections.

NB: The extent of loss is expected to approach total loss owing to the recent developments of the collapse of three floors.

Further information........ http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Westgate-insurer-faces-Sh6-6-billion-compensation-bill/-/539546/2007294/-/item/1/-/p7982l/-/index.html

IF the poem

IF.....

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IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise:If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two impostors just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to, broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with worn-out tools:
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breathe a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: 'Hold on!'
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
' Or walk with Kings - nor lose the common touch,
if neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man, my son!

Rudyard Kipling

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